Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM...HUMBERTO REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CONTINUED
HINTS OF A BANDING-TYPE EYE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
STRONG...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST DSHIPS AND LGEM PREDICTIONS. 

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...OR
360/13.  A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATE IN THE
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH WHILE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  BY THIS TIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKENING STEERING
CURRENT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
A RECENT ASCAT OVER PASS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER HURRICANE
THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
ACCORDINGLY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 21.8N  29.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 23.3N  29.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 24.6N  31.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 25.4N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 26.0N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 27.5N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 29.0N  43.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 31.0N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:01 UTC