Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN REVEALING AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE...
WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED AT THE MID-LEVELS ON A SSMI/S PASS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCT
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN HAVE REACHED 4.4 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
ON THIS BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS BEEN SET AT 70 KNOTS.

HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN AS INDICATED IN THE NHC
FORECAST. 

AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS BEEN STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY
PROVIDED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP HUMBERTO MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.    
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 16.7N  29.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 18.2N  29.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 20.0N  29.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 21.5N  30.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 23.0N  31.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 24.0N  35.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 24.5N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 26.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:01 UTC