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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO


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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013
 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH RECENT
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO 
EXPAND OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. THE ASCAT
DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 50
KT...AND THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS ALSO
EXPANDED SINCE THIS MORNING.  
  
SATELLITE CENTER FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO
IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY...WITH A MOTION OF
285/9 KT.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SOON AS A COUPLE OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOWS MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND A
GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 72
HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE
WILL REBUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES AND THIS SHOULD TURN
HUMBERTO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  

THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER HUMBERTO SHOULD DECREASE
SOON...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS HUMBERTO TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME
QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE 
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 13.9N  25.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 14.4N  27.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 15.4N  28.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 16.9N  28.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 19.1N  29.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 23.0N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 25.2N  32.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 26.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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