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Tropical Storm GABRIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013
 
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE. IN ADDITION...AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS
CONTAINED SOME 34- TO 36-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED MORE THAN 100 NMI
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING TO AT LEAST
31 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO RECONNOITER THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF GABRIELLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10 KT...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON
LIMITED MICROWAVE FIXES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND
SLOWING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RETROGRADING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT
24 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
 
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT
OVER 28-29C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF BY 48 HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...GABRIELLE WILL
BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HOURS WHEN WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LESS THAN 20C. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 29.6N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 31.1N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 32.7N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 33.7N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 34.5N  66.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 37.7N  65.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 46.8N  58.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/0600Z 56.5N  41.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:58 UTC