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Tropical Storm DORIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
500 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DORIAN HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY...POSSIBLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE
CONVECTION...AND THE CONVECTIVE AREA HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT AMSU ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS.
 
DORIAN IS BEING DRIVEN QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION REMAINS 285/17.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING OR THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF
DORIAN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD PATH
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS...NAVGEM...AND HWRF ARE THE
SOUTHERNMOST OF THE MODELS...FORECASTING THE STORM TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER HISPANIOLA IN 4-5 DAYS.  THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE THE NORTHERNMOST...FORECASTING A POSITION NEAR THE
BAHAMAS IN 5 DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FOR THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.   AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT DORIAN
SHOULD INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS.  WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS CONTINUING SHEAR DURING THIS INTERACTION...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET SHOW A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  BASED ON THE PREMISE
THAT THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE SHIPS
MODEL...THE FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION AT 96 HOURS. 
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD DISSIPATE...EITHER
FROM LANDFALL ON HISPANIOLA OR FROM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE
DUE TO THE CURRENT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 17.1N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 17.6N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 18.3N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 18.9N  52.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 19.5N  56.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 20.0N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 20.5N  68.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 21.5N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:53 UTC