Tropical Storm CHANTAL
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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
0300 UTC WED JUL 10 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 3 8 16 18 21 27
TROP DEPRESSION 2 23 32 37 34 34 28
TROPICAL STORM 92 69 56 44 44 43 41
HURRICANE 7 4 4 4 4 3 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 4 4 3 4 3 3
HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 X X X 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 40KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) 1(23)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) X(21) 1(22)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LES CAYES 34 X 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
LES CAYES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 38(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CAPE BEATA 34 2 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
CAPE BEATA 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PUERTO PLATA 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 10 17(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
PONCE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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