Tropical Storm CHANTAL

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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013
 
CHANTAL PRODUCED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG ITS PATH THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND
GUST...68 KT...WAS REPORTED BY METEO-FRANCE AT LAMENTIN AIRPORT IN
MARTINIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE
RAGGED...THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SMALL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS
INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
WINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA...WHERE
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...BUT COULD ALLOW MODEST RESTRENGTHENING AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

CHANTAL CONTINUES RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
23 KNOTS...STEERED BY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND THE STEERING
CURRENTS WEAKEN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST
RUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD
MODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
IF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 15.2N  63.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 16.5N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 18.0N  70.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 20.0N  73.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 22.0N  75.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 26.0N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 28.0N  78.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 31.1N  80.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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