Tropical Storm ANDREA

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TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013
 
THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS NOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THIS MORNING...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND AN INNER WIND CORE...WITH SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55
KT ABOUT 20 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 71 KT.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB.  ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WAS A SHOALING CONTRIBUTION TO THE SFMR
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.  NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15.  ANDREA SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST AND NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EASTWARD AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WITH THIS
GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING UNTIL DISSIPATION.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD ONE.
 
ANDREA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.  SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES OVER AND
NEAR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UNTIL
DISSIPATION AROUND 120 HOURS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
COMPLETE...WHICH COULD CAUSE ANDREA TO HAVE A POST-TROPICAL PHASE
BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
 
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY.  BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATOPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO
EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 29.5N  83.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR COAST
 12H  07/0600Z 31.9N  81.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/1800Z 35.6N  78.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  08/0600Z 39.8N  73.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1800Z 43.8N  67.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1800Z 46.6N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1800Z 46.0N  29.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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