Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ANDREA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRUCTURE OF ANDREA HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS DISPLACED IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO APPROXIMATELY 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1002 MB IS SUPPORED BY A RECENT OBSERVATION OF 1003 MB WITH 20
KT OF WIND FROM NOAA BUOY 42003. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING ANDREA OVERNIGHT AND
PROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. 

WHILE ANDREA WILL REMAIN IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BAROCLINIC FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER-
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DEEPENING FROM A PRESSURE
STANDPOINT...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PEAK WINDS IS EXPECTED BEFORE
OR AFTER ANDREA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 010/05...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CURRENT CENTER EARLIER TODAY. 
A GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
WHILE OVERALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...THERE REMAIN SOME SIZEABLE DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED.
IN PARTICULAR...THE GFS REMAINS QUITE FAST AND SHOWS A SOMEWHAT
DISCONTINUOUS TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF
AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 
  
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 26.0N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 27.3N  85.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 29.6N  83.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 33.0N  80.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/0000Z 37.5N  75.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/0000Z 44.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0000Z 44.5N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z 47.5N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:49 UTC