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Post-Tropical Cyclone ROSA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
100 PM PST SUN NOV 04 2012
 
ROSA HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR SOME TIME...AND
THE SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED.  THE SYSTEM IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  BASED ON THIS...ROSA IS
DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THIS
SYSTEM.  A 1724 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE
AROUND 25 KT.  THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
 
ROSA HAS NOT MOVED VERY MUCH TODAY.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 12.6N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  05/0600Z 12.9N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1800Z 13.2N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 13.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 13.5N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:45 UTC