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Tropical Storm PAUL


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
 
...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 112.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS SOUTH OF SANTA FE AND SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST.  PAUL
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/H.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC