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Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
 
...PAUL HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...NEARING CLARION ISLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 114.4W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEST IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AND THE
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...FOLLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.  AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 MPH...60 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...84 KM/H.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC