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Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
 
...HURRICANE PAUL MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A HURRY...  
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...

 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 112.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. 
THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A WEAKENING PAUL MOVING OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THAT AS PAUL MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
THERE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC