Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MIRIAM


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2012
 
MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MIRIAM HAS
COMPLETED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND A 30 N MI DIAMETER EYE
APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
AROUND THE EYE OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS...AND UW-CIMSS ADT AND NHC
AODT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T5.3/97 KT AND
T5.6/105 KT...RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 90 KT...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05 KT. MIRIAM IS ON TRACK AND...
AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TURN NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE UKMET MODEL
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH A STRONG WEST BIAS AND HAS...
THEREFORE...BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AS A RESULT...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS TV15 AND TVCE...AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BETTER DEPICT A STRONGER AND MORE
VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE AS CURRENTLY ANALYZED.
 
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOTED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MIRIAM
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BY DAYS 3-5...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 30N 130W.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ABOVE 30 KT...
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND POSSIBLE DISSIPATION
BEFORE MIRIAM REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 18.7N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 19.3N 114.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 20.1N 115.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 21.1N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 22.1N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 24.0N 115.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 25.7N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 27.2N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:38 UTC