Tropical Storm ILEANA

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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012
 
ILEANA IS NOW VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW SMALL CELLS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE 35-KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ILEANA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. ILEANA SHOULD TURN SOUTH OF
DUE WEST IN A DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED BY THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 23.1N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 23.1N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 23.0N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0600Z 22.7N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/1800Z 22.4N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z 21.5N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 20.5N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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