Hurricane ILEANA
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HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012
ALTHOUGH THE EYE FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME...THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS
APPROACHING COOLER WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING...AND ILEANA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72
HOURS.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ILEANA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN THE LONG
RANGE...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE ONCE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT AS IN
THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS INSISTS ON MOVING ILEANA MORE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS INDICATING THAT ILEANA
WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND TURN WEST. FORTUNATELY...ILEANA IS
FORECAST TO BE A WEAK REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 19.7N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 20.6N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 22.3N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 24.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0600Z 24.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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