Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression HECTOR


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012

HECTOR IS WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE CENTER REMAINS
EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF DISORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION...AND
AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1658 UTC SHOWED WIND VECTORS OF AT MOST 25 KT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...HECTOR
IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THIS INTENSITY
COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/6.  A COMBINATION
OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD STEER HECTOR SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
AGAIN  SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  IT LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 24 HR AND NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.

THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR HECTOR TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS
WHILE CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE SHEAR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
AFTER 36 HR...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR IN
AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 18.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 21.5N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z 23.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z 24.5N 118.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC