Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm HECTOR


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 AM PDT MON AUG 13 2012
 
HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE BLASTED BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CENTER IS QUICKLY BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW STORM
STRENGTH...BUT THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY VALUES FROM TAFB.  DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS
HECTOR DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...
UNLESS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION LATER TODAY...HECTOR COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

SINCE THE SUN HAS SET OVER THE AREA...THE CENTER IS MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AUTOMATED STATION AT
SOCORRO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER RECENTLY PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND.  BASED ON THESE SYNOPTIC DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...MY
BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF HECTOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY AROUND 72
HOURS...A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE REMNANT LOW OF ERNESTO SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SHALLOW CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE
LOWER-LAYER FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 18.1N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 18.1N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 18.3N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 18.6N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 19.4N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC