Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm HECTOR


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CYCLONE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT HECTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING THAT CAN OCCUR. AFTER THAT TIME...WHILE THE
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD WEAKEN...HECTOR WILL NEAR VERY
CLOSE TO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS
ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE FORECAST
SIZE OF THE STORM HAS BEEN INCREASED.

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT HECTOR
APPEARS TO BE MOVING 290/11...A BIT FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER. A RIDGE OVER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THAT TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE COULD
WEAKEN AND STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN BY 24 HOURS AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE STORM WILL TURN SOUTH OF WEST...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HECTOR INTERACTING WITH THE ACTIVE ITCZ NEAR MEXICO.
WITH THE MODEL DIVERGENCE...IT IS USUALLY BEST TO STAY NEAR THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC
FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 18.5N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 18.8N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 18.5N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 18.4N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC