Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FABIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012

THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES AS DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 70
KT REPRESENTS A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL T AND CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FABIO IS PROJECTED TO REACH OCEAN
WATERS COOLER THAN 29 DEG C WITHIN LESS THAN 48 HOURS...AND AS A
RESULT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 2...AND THIS IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LGEM GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE VERY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...FABIO COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN
HERE.
 
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM
MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS PRODUCING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FABIO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE BREAK.  LATER...THE CYCLONE
COULD SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF NORTH AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE
EFFECT OF THE TROUGH.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE TOP PORTION OF
THE WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 
THIS WOULD LEAVE THE REMAINING REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA UNTIL IT LOSES ITS
IDENTITY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION.

SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO SHOULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN A FEW
DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 18.3N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 20.3N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 21.6N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 23.0N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC