Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FABIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF FABIO IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 20 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE.  IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...FABIO HAS STILL BEEN ABLE TO GAIN
STRENGTH.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS AROUND 75 KT.  IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM
EARLIER TODAY YIELDED AN ESTIMATE OF 72 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING FABIO FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  SINCE THE SHEAR DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE BEEN TOO
MUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR THUS FAR AND FABIO WILL STILL BE OVER
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL ONLY 2
PERCENT...SO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  FABIO
SHOULD MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UPDATED
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND ONLY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FABIO IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD
CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO
UNTIL THE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DEEPENS ENOUGH TO SEVER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG 28N.  AT THAT POINT...FABIO
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAY 5. 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FABIO HAS BECOME A MORE SYMMETRIC CYCLONE...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1642 UTC ASCAT PASS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 15.6N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 16.1N 112.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.5N 114.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 16.8N 115.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC