Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane EMILIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
 
EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE FILLING 
IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY BEFORE 0000
UTC.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 75 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS AND
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 73 KT.  THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24-25 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  EMILIA
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE HEADING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO ITS NORTH.  LITTLE CHANGE
WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE NEW TRACK IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFS...ECWMF...AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 15.4N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 15.5N 125.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 15.8N 127.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 16.2N 132.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 16.4N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 16.3N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0000Z 16.3N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC