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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
200 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

CARLOTTA HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT
CONTINUES TO BE SURROUNDED BY A COMPLEX OF OUTER RAIN BANDS.
HOWEVER...A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU OVERPASS DOES NOT YET SHOW AN
EYEWALL FORMING UNDER THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT
THE EAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION.  CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR PERHAPS 
36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION FROM 36-72 HR.  THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HR...AND IT REMAINS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT CARLOTTA SHOULD TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 36-72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION AND
MOTION.  AT ABOUT 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT IN THE TRACK
FORECAST.
 
CARLOTTA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST
STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25-KT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR AND REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 36 HR...AND THIS PEAK COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. 
AFTER 36 HR...LAND INTERACTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR
ON THE INTENSITY.  IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND THAT SCENARIO IS USED
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 11.8N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 12.9N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 14.2N  96.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 15.3N  97.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST
 48H  16/1800Z 16.1N  98.4W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST
 72H  17/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST
 96H  18/1800Z 16.0N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 15.5N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:11 UTC