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Tropical Storm BUD


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
 
BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
REVEALED THE FORMATION OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTED AT A
FORMATIVE BANDING-TYPE EYE. OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN
INCREASING. IN ADDITION...A 0050 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED A
CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE A CONSENSUS T3.5 AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEWLY-FORMED CDO HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
A WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY APPEARING. THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED
ADT VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO T4.2.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS..
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT.
 
OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...BUD SHOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH SHORTLY. BEYOND
24 HOURS...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL
LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO IN 48-72 HOURS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION
AND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN PREDICTED. EITHER THE LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OR INTERACTION WITH THE MEXICAN COAST SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE FSSE MODEL OUTPUT.
 
THE LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TRACK OF BUD HAS BENT TO THE
RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 350/05.  RESPONDING TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...BUD
HAS GRADUALLY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT A CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA.  IN 48-72 HOURS...THE CENTER OF BUD IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND SLOW DOWN
FURTHER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND LEAVES THE
CYCLONE IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING.  THE MORE RELIABLE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST AROUND THIS TIME...POSSIBLY EVEN ONSHORE. THESE MODELS
THEN DEPICT A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS THE RESULT
OF ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...BEING STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR
SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO WHILE THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD.  THE GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LARGELY A BLEND OF THE
WEAKER ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AFTER 48 HOURS.
 
GIVEN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 14.2N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 15.0N 107.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 16.1N 107.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 17.5N 106.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 18.4N 105.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 19.0N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 18.0N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:09 UTC