Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression ONE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012
 
THE DISTURBANCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1200 UTC WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS NOW ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH MORE
WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS LESS
INTENSIFICATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION BEING STEERED ON A WESTWARD COURSE AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AFTER WEAKENING...THE
SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z  9.8N 105.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 10.2N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 10.6N 109.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 10.8N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 11.1N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 11.8N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 12.2N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:03 UTC