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Post-Tropical Cyclone SANDY


ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
 
...SANDY STILL PACKING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...
...NEXT PUBLIC ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 75.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF PHILADELPHIA PENSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HOWEVER...THERE ARE NON-TROPICAL HIGH-WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST
BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND
TO SMITH POINT...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE
BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW
JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND
RHODE ISLAND.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH OF CHATHAM
THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...
AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 18
MPH...30 KM/H.  A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK TUESDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56
MPH...WITH A GUST TO 71 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAGUARDIA
AIRPORT IN NEW YORK.  A TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY AUTOMATED OBSERVING
SITE HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 67
MPH...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE DATA IS 952
MB...28.11 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW
JERSEY...NEW YORK...SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.
 
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...
 
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
 
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
 
SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.
 
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON SANDY.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION 
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 500 AM EDT.  THESE PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL ALSO
BE AVAILABLE ON THE NHC WEBSITE.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:55 UTC