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Hurricane SANDY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY OF SANDY HAS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AT
951-952 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 78 KT WERE MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...BUT NO
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WERE DETECTED IN ANY
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD OF
SANDY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT MISSED SOME OF THE POCKETS
OF STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13 KT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN NEARLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO THERE
REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE
HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL FORECASTS.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN
DECREASING...AND SOME WEAK OUTFLOW IS NOW APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A RESULT SANDY IS EXPECTED
MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE
HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 25C. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME BAROCLINIC DEEPENING AS SANDY
BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE COAST. A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS
TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM.
 
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 33.4N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 35.0N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 37.7N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 39.5N  74.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  30/1800Z 40.2N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1800Z 42.7N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1800Z 44.7N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z 45.6N  71.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:56 UTC