Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RAFAEL


ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
 
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:52 UTC