Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
 
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE WERE CONFLICTING SIGNALS CONCERNING
THE EXISTENCE AND LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A MORE DEFINITIVE
CIRCULATION HAS TAKEN SHAPE...CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS
ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO DEEM THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  SINCE A CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
TO TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 320/13 KT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE AND GETS
PICKED UP IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
 
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY INCREASING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN FACT...EVERY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW BY 72 HOURS...AND THAT RESULT IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 17.3N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 19.1N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 20.6N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 22.2N  41.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 24.3N  38.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:48 UTC