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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  86
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
 
NADINE IS A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EXTREMELY LARGE OCCLUDED
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NADINE IS NOT A
CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LARGE AND WELL-PRONOUNCED BAND OF SHALLOW
TO MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...DESPITE
THE RATHER DEGRADED AND POOR APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BEING
MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY CI-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 36-KT WIND REPORT
FROM SHIP BATFR18 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AT 0200 UTC. 

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/21 KT. NADINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN 48
TO 72 HOURS...THEN POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL NADINE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA.

THE 36-KT SHIP REPORT AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FROM NOW THROUGH LANDFALL
IN THE AZORES. NADINE COULD MERGE WITH EITHER A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OR CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH A WARM
FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT BY 24
HOURS...CLEAR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY. REGARDLESS OF THE
STATUS OF NADINE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS FROM SHIPS WITH CALL
SIGNS BATFR13...BATFR15...AND BATFR18...WHICH HAVE BEEN NAVIGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION OF NADINE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 37.4N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 40.2N  28.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  05/0000Z 44.5N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  05/1200Z 47.0N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  06/0000Z 49.0N  27.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:45 UTC