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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 26 2012
 
NADINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...
ALONG WITH DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED SEVERAL 40-KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...
AND SUGGESTS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND HAS CONTRACTED TO
ABOUT 40 N MI.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT...BASED
ON THE ASCAT DATA.
 
THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION 180/3.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...FORECASTING NADINE TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD...WESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. 
THE GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 72 HR DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF NADINE AND WHETHER THE STORM WILL
RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS THE TROUGH
ACCELERATING NADINE TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS...GFDL...
AND HWRF SHOW THE CYCLONE STALLING NEAR THE 120 HR POINT.  THE
UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING NADINE TO THE NORTH...
WITH RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO AGAIN MOVE
SOUTHWARD.  THE GFS...IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS
FORECAST...IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF.  GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION AFTER THE
96 HR POINT.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NADINE IS MOVING OVER INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE
SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE IS IN A
LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING
THE OUTFLOW.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS A RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. 
AFTER 36 HR...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A MOTION OVER COOLER
WATERS SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HR...AND IS LOWER THAN THOSE MODELS AFTER
THAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 30.6N  30.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 29.8N  30.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 28.9N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 28.7N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 29.4N  34.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 32.0N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 35.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 36.0N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC