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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012
 
A BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
HAS WRAPPED AROUND ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYE-LIKE
FEATURE SEEN IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER
OF 3.0 FROM SAB AND RECENT RAW T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS ADT SUGGEST
THAT NADINE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT FOR NOW I PREFER TO
KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT TO SEE IF THE CONVECTION CAN PERSIST.  

NADINE APPEARS TO HAVE HESITATED FOR A TIME EARLIER TODAY...BUT 
THE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KT. 
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING SINCE 
THIS MORNING.  NADINE SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD VERY SOON AS NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD...THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT WESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MORE EASTERN GFS AND THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...THE NEW TRACK HAS NOT BEEN ADJUSTED VERY
FAR.

EXCEPT FOR SOME DRY AIR THAT NADINE COULD INGEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
SSTS AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO
WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...THE LONG-RANGE GLOBAL MODEL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE ALREADY TWO-WEEK-OLD CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER 
THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 31.7N  30.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 31.1N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 30.2N  30.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 29.3N  31.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 28.8N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 29.2N  33.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 31.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 33.5N  35.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC