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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012
 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE HAS GRADUALLY WANED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INGESTION
OF SOME DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION AND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 50 KT. NADINE HAD BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...BUT IS
NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE TURNS NADINE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4
TO 5 DAYS.  THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AS NADINE REMAINS IN MODERATE SHEAR AND OVER MARGINAL
SSTS.  IN ADDITION....DRY AIR APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED AROUND MUCH
OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP. ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS FOR NADINE TO NOT
REGAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL ONCE AGAIN.
THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES NADINE WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF WARMER SSTS...LESS SHEAR...AND SLIGHTLY
MORE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IS THE SAME AS THE EARLIER FORECAST BY DAY 5. 
THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IS CLOSE TO
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 31.0N  26.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 31.2N  26.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 31.5N  28.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 31.7N  29.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 31.6N  31.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 30.9N  32.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 31.0N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 33.5N  37.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC