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Hurricane NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2012
 
FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE INNER-CORE BANDING
FEATURES OF NADINE HAVE IMPROVED...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTWARD TILT TO THE EYE HAS DECREASED.
SINCE A BANDING EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 70 KT.
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE NADINE HAS
ACCELERATED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/20 KT. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BE STEERED QUICKLY
EASTWARD WITHIN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW TO THE WEST
OF NADINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE CYCLONE OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...NADINE IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SEPARATE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC
MOTION OCCURRING WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT MERGING COULD
OCCUR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NON-TROPICAL LOW...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS DISCOUNTING THAT SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...AND ONLY
BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND
TVCA...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...
SO THE MAIN WEAKENING FACTOR WILL BE COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. AFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A STRONG NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD AND IMPINGES ON THE CYCLONE...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND
SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 30.5N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 30.9N  39.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 31.7N  36.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 32.8N  34.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 34.0N  32.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 36.3N  31.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 37.0N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 37.0N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC