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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012
 
A 1624 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CORE CONVECTION MAY BE
IMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION...BUT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED
ABOUT HALF A DEGREE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO VERTICAL
SHEAR.  DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN
TO 55 KT.  THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE SEEMS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
THIS MORNING AND DOES NOT LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT NADINE HAS
WEAKENED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY IN A DAY OR TWO...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF STRONG SHEAR BEING CANCELED OUT
BY THE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR DIRECTION. 
AS A RESULT...THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY OVERALL...BUT DOES STILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF
NADINE BECOMING A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HWRF
SHOWS NADINE STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LESS LIKELY SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING COLDER WATER.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING BY
DAY 5 THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NADINE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 015/12 KT. 
THE STORM IS ENTERING THE BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND IT
SHOULD TURN EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A NORTHEASTWARD
TURN IS THEN FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS NADINE APPROACHES A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW NEAR THE AZORES.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE NEW FORECAST
HAS BEEN MOVED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AS WELL...SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED DUE-EAST MOTION FOR A TIME.  THE NHC TRACK LIES VERY
CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 28.8N  53.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 30.1N  52.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 30.9N  50.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 31.0N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 31.1N  44.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 32.5N  37.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 35.0N  33.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 37.0N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC