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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM AST THU SEP 13 2012
 
NADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE APPEARANCE OF A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE EXHIBITS A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...NO EYE IS APPARENT IN
EITHER VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT VERTICAL SHEAR HAS NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG OVER THE
STORM.  THE SHEAR HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
NADINE FROM STRENGTHENING TODAY.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW AS MUCH SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IN PREVIOUS
CYCLES.  THIS LIKELY RESULTS FROM THE PREDICTION OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS THAT A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF NADINE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND
PHASE WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE EXITING EASTERN CANADA.  THIS WOULD
LEAVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR. 
THEREFORE...NADINE MAY STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE TIMING AND DURATION OF A POTENTIAL STRENGTHENING EPISODE
IS UNCERTAIN.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND TOWARD THE RIGHT...AND IS NOW NEAR
325/14.  THE SYNOPTIC TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
FORECASTS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS A LEFT
OUTLIER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR LEFT AS IN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...EXCEPT TO LOOP
JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FOR DAYS 3-5.  THIS FALLS
BETWEEN THE LATEST TVCN CONSENSUS AND THE GFS/ECMWF TRACKS.

THE SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A MUCH LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD AT LEAST 200 N MI.  THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IN WHICH NADINE IS
SEEN TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS WELL TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 24.0N  53.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 25.7N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 28.0N  54.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 30.1N  53.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 31.3N  52.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 32.0N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 33.0N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 35.0N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC