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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM AST THU SEP 13 2012

BASED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...NADINE HAS NOT
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THERE IS
A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER...BUT NADINE HAS YET TO DISPLAY ANY SIGN OF EYE FORMATION ON
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES.  THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
ASYMMETRIC...WITH MORE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTED EMANATING NORTHWARD FROM THE STORM...
SUGGESTING SOME INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.  DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE...SO THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT THAT EASY TO LOCATE...MOST RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/14.  THE STEERING
SCENARIO AND TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS APPEAR TO BE
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD.  NADINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE...AND THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS.  LATER
ON...THE TRACK MODELS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT...WITH A SPREAD OF OVER
600 N MI BY DAY 5.  THE GFDL IS THE LEFT-MOST OF THE MODEL
SUITE...AND IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.  THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME DURING DAYS 3-5 SEEMS TO BE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFDL.  THIS IS
ALSO ROUGHLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES.

NADINE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO ITS WEST.  ANALYSIS OF THE GFS MODEL FIELDS
REVEALS THE SHEAR IS MOST PROMINENT IN THE MID LEVELS AT THIS TIME. 
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG BY 36
HOURS AND BEYOND.  ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO
BECOME A HURRICANE...SOME OF THE BETTER-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SUCH AS
SHIPS SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR NADINE TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING PREDICTED AS SHEAR INCREASES BEYOND 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 22.6N  52.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 24.2N  53.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 26.4N  54.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 28.6N  53.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 30.1N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 31.8N  48.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 32.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 34.0N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BURKE/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC