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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012
 
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT.
THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
NADINE...THE FOURTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC SEASON.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13 KT. NADINE MADE A SLIGHT JOG
TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
TRANSIENT MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
CENTER...THE VORTEX COLUMN SHOULD BECOME VERTICALLY DEEPER AND MORE
STABLE...RESULTING IN LESS WOBBLE IN THE TRACK MOTION. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON
NADINE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ROUGHLY 55W LONGITUDE. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW SOON AND HOW MUCH NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE ON DAYS 3-5. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION
AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON DAY 4...AND TOWARD
THE EAST ON DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND
SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15.
 
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED NADINE HAD DEVELOPED A TIGHT
INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE CDO
FEATURE HAVE FORMED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS EXISTS OWING TO THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND OTHER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE
HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NADINE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 17.8N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 18.9N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 20.5N  49.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 22.2N  51.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 24.4N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 28.0N  53.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 30.0N  51.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 31.5N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC