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Hurricane LESLIE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012               
2100 UTC WED SEP 05 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       1       2
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       1       1       2       1       6
TROPICAL STORM  26      22      20      20      20      18      41
HURRICANE       74      77      80      80      78      80      52
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       67      59      50      43      38      35      33
HUR CAT 2        5      14      21      23      22      25      13
HUR CAT 3        1       4       7      12      14      16       5
HUR CAT 4        X       1       2       3       3       4       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    75KT    80KT    85KT    90KT    95KT    85KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  28(31)  45(76)   2(78)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  38(43)   1(44)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   1(23)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:34 UTC