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Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
 
...CENTER OF ISAAC NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 72.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
* FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HAITI SOON...MOVE NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...
FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES HAITI AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HAITI. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY...AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA
BAY...AND THE SOUTHERNMOST FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
 
SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...2 TO 4 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT
 
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:24 UTC