Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012
 
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC WITH THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY. AN AVERAGE OF THESE TWO
ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. GORDON ONLY
HAS A DAY OR SO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN
BEGIN...BUT GORDON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM BY THE
TIME IT MOVES THROUGH THE AZORES IN 3 DAYS. ONCE GORDON MOVE EAST OF
THE AZORES...IT SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 085 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS...WELL
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN WELL
ESTABLISHED...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK
MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AZORES. MODELS ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE
WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BRINGS GORDON THROUGH THE AZORES IN ABOUT 3
DAYS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 34.6N  50.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 34.9N  47.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 34.8N  43.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 34.5N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 34.5N  35.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 36.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 39.0N  21.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/0000Z 41.0N  15.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:22 UTC