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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2012

CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION FROM 280 TO 275 DEGREES
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  80.5W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  60SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  80.5W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  80.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.4N  82.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.2N  84.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N  86.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.7N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.7N  92.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.0N  96.0W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N  98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N  80.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:13 UTC