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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012
 
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -85C HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THIS HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A STRENGTHENING
TREND DESPITE THE SURFACE PRESSURE HAVING DECREASED TO ABOUT 1003
MB. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 42 KT AND
THE HIGHEST ADJUSTED-SFMR SURFACE WIND HAS BEEN AROUND 44 KT. BASED
ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.
 
ERNESTO HAS CONTINUED TO DECELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 270/13 KT. THE DECOUPLED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX HAS
DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND ERNESTO
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND
CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA AND TV15.
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DONE A SUPERB JOB IN FORECASTING THE
RECENT SHORT-TERM WOBBLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OWING TO THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEING DISPLACED
MORE THAN 60 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THOSE MODELS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS TO RE-COUPLE AND BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AGAIN IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. UNTIL THAT TIME...HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 15.0N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 15.3N  81.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 16.1N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 17.1N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 17.9N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 19.0N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/0000Z 20.0N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  11/0000Z 20.5N  98.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:17 UTC