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Hurricane CHRIS


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012
1100 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012
 
CHRIS HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE FEATURE THIS MORNING...AND IN FACT THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED.  A 1111Z SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO
INDICATED A SOLID CLOSED RING ON THE 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. 
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED AND THE COLD INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS
ARE -60C TO -70C...RESULTING IN A DVORAK SATELLITE DATA-T ESTIMATES
OF 4.5 AND CONSTRAINED FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB.  IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CIMSS ADT HAS OBJECTIVELY
IDENTIFIED AN EYE SCENE TYPE...THE LAST FEW RAW T-NUMBERS WERE ALSO
4.4 TO 4.5.  BASED ON THESE DATA AND CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY
COOL SSTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT...MAKING CHRIS
THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD
OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AT AN
ESTIMATED 050/17.  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS THE CYCLONE TURNS
CYCLONICALLY...NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LARGER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.  AFTERWARD...CHRIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE LOW IN 48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 41.1N  43.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 42.8N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 44.0N  43.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/0000Z 43.5N  45.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1200Z 42.5N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:10 UTC