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Subtropical Storm BERYL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012               
0900 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       1       4       8      24      38      43
TROP DEPRESSION 14      15      22      28      34      29      21
TROPICAL STORM  83      76      65      54      38      30      33
HURRICANE        2       8       8       9       5       2       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       7       7       8       4       2       2
HUR CAT 2        X       1       1       1       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    45KT    40KT    30KT    30KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   2( 7)   4(11)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   3(11)   2(13)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   3(12)   4(16)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  5   5(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   4(17)   3(20)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   3(14)   5(19)   2(21)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  6   8(14)   3(17)   1(18)   2(20)   5(25)   2(27)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  4  13(17)   7(24)   3(27)   3(30)   6(36)   1(37)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)   5(19)   7(26)   1(27)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  1   9(10)  15(25)  10(35)   4(39)   8(47)   X(47)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  1   7( 8)  22(30)  14(44)   6(50)   5(55)   1(56)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   3(16)   X(16)
MAYPORT NS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  1   5( 6)  20(26)  15(41)   6(47)   5(52)   1(53)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  1   3( 4)  11(15)  11(26)   5(31)   5(36)   1(37)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   5(19)   4(23)   X(23)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   4(17)   4(21)   1(22)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   4(17)   4(21)   1(22)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   1(14)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   4(16)   X(16)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   8(21)   6(27)   X(27)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   9(20)   5(25)   X(25)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   9(20)   6(26)   X(26)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   4(18)   X(18)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   4(15)   X(15)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   4(16)   1(17)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:08 UTC