Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TODAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS RECENTLY BECOME
EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A 1702 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED
WINDS WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.  KENNETH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
AND COOLER SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
KENNETH HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
285/10.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 13.2N 118.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 13.7N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 14.2N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 14.6N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 14.8N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:21 UTC