Hurricane KENNETH
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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. A SYMMETRIC RING OF
EYEWALL -70 TO -75C CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAS DEVELOPED AROUND A
CLOUD-FREE EYE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED TO T6.5 SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS KENNETH
HAS MORE THAN LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. AFTERWARD...WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY FASTER THAN FORECAST BEYOND THE 36 HR
PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIABLE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE LEFT OF DUE WEST...265/11.
KENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A SERIES OF MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD
ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 2 DAYS. NEAR DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON THE HWRF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 12.7N 113.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 13.3N 117.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 13.9N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 15.1N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 15.5N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
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