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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011
 
KENNETH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.  THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED
A DISTINCT 20-N MI WIDE EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...
SURROUNDED BY A NEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE CYCLONE
ALSO HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND
FAIR OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY ON
THIS ADVISORY.

SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OR MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 OR 4
DAYS...THE INTENSITY OF KENNETH WILL BE GOVERNED BY CHANGES IN 
ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH KENNETH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26.5C
ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WESTWARD.  AS A RESULT OF
THESE FACTORS...KENNETH PROBABLY HAS A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR
INTENSIFICATION...AND NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE MAKES IT A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AFTER THAT TIME AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

KENNETH HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
280/11 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH STILL EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 15N.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEING ERODED BY
TWO SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES ON DAYS 2 AND 3. 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS 
DURING THAT PERIOD.  WHILE THERE IS LESS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE
BEYOND 36 HOURS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS
AND HWRF STILL HAVE A DEEPER VORTEX MOVING MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE CYCLONE FASTER
AND MOVES IT QUICKLY WESTWARD IN LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A SCENARIO BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES GIVEN
THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...AND ENDS UP A
LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 
THIS IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THOSE
TIMES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 13.0N 111.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 13.0N 113.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 13.1N 115.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 13.4N 117.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 14.0N 118.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 15.5N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:21 UTC