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Tropical Storm KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011
 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS
SHARPLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...INCLUDING THE BRIEF
APPEARANCE OF A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE MOST
RECENT 2-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ALSO T3.5/55 KT.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 KT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY STABILIZED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS
AND MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE KENNETH HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WESTWARD
DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BASICALLY
INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE EXPECTED IN 72-84 HOURS WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE ALONG 120W LONGITUDE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONG FETCH OF VERY FAST WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERNS FAVORS
TROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD RATHER THAN DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE LATEST 00Z GFS RUN HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON WEAKENING THE RIDGE
AND ALLOWING KENNETH TO RECURVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RECURVING KENNETH...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SCENARIO
SINCE ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HFIP MODELS...
KEEP KENNETH AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER TYPE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE HWRF-BIASED CONSENSUS
MODELS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 72 HOURS.
 
KENNETH HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THIS
TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS GIVEN THE LOW VERTICAL
SHEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS WRAPPED INTO THE INNER
CORE...AND THIS DRY AIR COULD BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE STRENGTHENING
PROCESS. REGARDLESS OF THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR...KENNETH IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR AND MOIST
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATER
BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BY DAYS 4
AND 5 SHOULD INDUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND THE MORE ROBUST HWRF/GFDL MODELS.

THE 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON REPORTS FROM SHIP LAXS2 LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 12.3N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 12.6N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 12.8N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 12.8N 114.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 13.0N 116.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 14.3N 120.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 15.2N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 15.9N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:21 UTC