Tropical Depression IRWIN
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
200 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2011
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH IRWIN...AND THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF LOSING THE CONVECTIVE
REQUIREMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE
BEING KEPT AT 30 KT DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
BACKGROUND 20-25 KT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE ITCZ. WHILE THERE IS A
NON-ZERO CHANCE OF RESTRENGTHENING IN A FEW DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.
IRWIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW ABOUT 11 KT. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THE REMNANTS OF IRWIN ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TURN BACK TO THE
WEST DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO BE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE NEW TRACK OF IRWIN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 18.3N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 18.6N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.2N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1800Z 17.4N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0600Z 16.4N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z 15.0N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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